Crude prices surged roughly 12% this week as US-Iran strikes collapsed an interim ceasefire and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued choking energy supplies. Wells Fargo Economics raised its global GDP forecast to 2.7% while trimming CPI to 4.3%, assuming a lower oil path — but the crisis is rewriting supply chains and central bank calendars in real time.

Behind the Data

The numbers tell two stories at once. Global growth is holding up —...