Andy Burnham will take office on July 20 with a Treasury that may already be running on fumes. The PM-in-waiting has hinted at "movement on tax" to help high streets and fund a "new direction," but the public finances he inherits are under pressure from the Iran war, rising borrowing costs, and Keir Starmer's £15bn defence plan. Rachel Reeves left just £23.6bn of fiscal headroom in March; the Office for Budget Responsibility will now decide how much of that buffer survives.

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