Central banks are ditching dovish bets fast. With the Fed's first meeting under new leadership looming next week, December's rate cut now looks questionable after job growth surged and inflation beat projections even excluding the Iran energy shock. The ECB is all but certain to deliver a 25bp hike on Thursday, its first since September 2023.

Trade Routes

• United States: Markets are overpricing further tightening, yet resilient growth and sticky inflation keep the Fed on...