The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5%-3.75% last week, but its internal split is widening fast. Governor Lisa Cook is now openly warning she'll back a rate hike if disinflation stalls, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly points to early signs tariff pressures are fading. The economy is sending mixed signals: services are booming, but hiring has hit a wall.

Headwinds

Factors working against growth:

• Jobs slowdown: ADP reported just 44,000 private...