• Fed Rate: Expected hold at 3.50%–3.75%, but September hike odds surge to 82%
• Inflation: Core PCE still above target; $100 oil and $4/gallon gas threaten second-round effects
• Jobs: Initial claims at 187,000, lowest since 1969 — labor market defying AI and layoff fears
• Mortgage Rates: Hit yearly high of 6.85% as 10-year yield climbs to 4.71%

The Checkup

The Federal Reserve's July meeting next week looks like a calm before a...