A potential U.S.-Iran peace deal has thrown a wrench into the Federal Reserve's inflation calculus just as new Chair Kevin Warsh takes the helm for his first policy meeting. Oil prices are cratering — down 4.9% Monday to $80.75 and slipping further Tuesday — yet the dollar is holding strong on expectations Warsh won't blink on rates.

Trade Routes

• Iran/Persian Gulf: Ships reportedly "starting to move" through the Strait of Hormuz, though Oxford Economics warns...