The fragile US-Iran ceasefire is all but over. Washington has given Tehran a Saturday deadline to publicly renounce attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, while Qatar races to mediate. India is building a 1.75 million-tonne strategic oil reserve in Mangalore, and the IEA warns the conflict could flip next year’s oil surplus forecast.

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US-Iran Hormuz deadline

• What happened: The US is demanding Iran publicly affirm the Strait of Hormuz is fully open and...