2.25% — the Bank of Canada's overnight rate, which economists expect to hold for the sixth straight meeting on Wednesday. That's the easy part. What happens after is where it gets ugly.

Money Moves

• BoC is in a "pickle" — Oxford Economics' Tony Stillo warns the central bank is trapped between a weak economy and oil-driven inflation. Raise rates to fight the crude surge, and you crush an already sluggish domestic recovery. Cut to stimulate growth, and you...