The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.7% on Thursday — its highest level since January 2025 — as bond markets priced in a cocktail of rising oil, new tariffs, and stubborn inflation just days before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting.

Behind the Data

Three forces are converging to push yields higher. Iran war disruptions have sent Brent crude above $100 per barrel and U.S. gasoline past $4.10 per gallon — up sharply from pre-war levels below $3....