Trump's new tariffs on 60 economies took effect at midnight Friday, covering 99.4% of U.S. imports with rates of 10% to 12.5% under a forced-labor rationale. Meanwhile, oil prices surged above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, driven by renewed Middle East conflict and Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping.

Headwinds

• Tariff-driven cost-push inflation: The new duties will raise prices on everything from electronics to apparel, acting as a...